Demographic trends show that our population is decreasing. It is predicted that there will be a sharp drop in the number of 18-year-olds applying to college next year, and by 2029, the number is projected to decrease by 15%. But will this result in less competition? Unfortunately, no. As colleges become increasingly competitive, students apply to more and more colleges. Consequently, the number of applications received by colleges will not decrease. In this past admission cycle, applications were up by 9%. According to a report published by Common App, the number of applications submitted overall as of the end of 2025 was up by 9% over the same period in 2025.
Annually, the two statistics that colleges prize are:
1. Acceptance rate – of the students who apply, how many do they accept? Colleges want this to be low. This past year, Harvard and Caltech accepted a record low 3% of students who applied.
2. The second important statistic is yield – of the number of applicants a college accepts, how many matriculate? Colleges want this statistic to be high – the most competitive schools like Harvard, Stanford, University of Chicago are reporting yield rates of close to 90%.
Nevertheless, as students apply to more colleges, it becomes harder for colleges to predict outcomes.
According to an article published in the Wall Street Journal on May 4, 2026, “The College-Admissions Chess Game Is More Complicated Than Ever,” colleges will increasingly use alternative admission plans to compete for high caliber students. Students focus on Early Decision applications, where acceptance rates can be as much as 4 times higher. Students applying Early Decision are pledged to attend the college if accepted, so colleges derive a 1:1 yield from these applications. In order to capitalize on this high yield rate, colleges are filling more and more of their classes through Early Decision rounds.
Other colleges have begun the practice of sending letters to Early Action applicants (where matriculation is not guaranteed by the student) to switch to Early Decision, promising them a “likely” acceptance, high scholarship possibilities, and more. Still others guaranty admission to elite programs, like business or engineering, with a certain gpa and test score.
Many colleges have started offering students a first semester or even a year abroad in order to increase the numbers of high caliber students they can accept. Some of these have partnered with a new company, Verto Education, that provides study abroad opportunities for a student’s freshman year and guarantees transfer acceptance to their partner institutions. Their 60 partner colleges include Vanderbilt, Colgate, Hamilton, Lehigh, CASE, University of Richmond, William & Mary, and more.
In addition, more colleges will be returning to requiring tests for admission. Virtually all colleges became test optional during Covid. Colleges who have had a long history of being test optional policy have pledged to evaluate students equally whether or not they submit test scores. However, for colleges who only became test optional because of Covid and are now once more requiring tests, it is becoming increasingly difficult for students with high grades to be accepted at the same rate as students with high grades and high test scores. The most competitive institutions are reporting the middle 50% range of SAT scores for accepted students to be as high as 1500 to 1580 out of a possible 1600 (an increase of up to 100 points), as only applicants with the highest test scores report them.
Therefore, the inescapable conclusion is that despite fewer students applying to colleges, the number of applications will not decrease, and college admission will continue to be as competitive as it has ever been. In addition, colleges are introducing new application options to compete for the best students, and average test scores for accepted students are higher than ever. What this means for rising seniors is that it is more critical than ever for students to have a balanced list of colleges with reach, target and safety options. With nearly 3,000 4-year colleges in the US, students should be able to find schools that are a good fit in all 3 categories. Students should begin with a longer list, research colleges to identify the factors that will make a college a good match and then settle on a list of around 10 or 12 colleges to apply to. With AP classes and extracurricular activities, it is virtually impossible for students to be able to devote the time and energy to write the essays and produce their best work for more than that. In addition, students who are not strong test takers should focus on colleges that were test optional long before Covid, as these are the colleges most likely to give their applications a fair read without test scores.
© Copyright May, 2026
Northcoast Educational Consulting
